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Business case for e-fuels

Hydrogen derivatives and e-fuels are the only way to decarbonize ~15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

There is no alternative.

There is now binding and punitive regulation in place, but there are no e-fuels available on the market today at scale.

This is the opportunity for ETFuels.
Given the versatility of methanol, ETFuels can serve multiple end-customers. Below we break down the regulation for shipping and aviation.

Shipping

In Europe FuelEU provides significant incentives for early movers to adopt e-fuels as follows:
1. GHG penalties of €2,400/t incentivizes compliance
2. E-fuels multiplier incentivizes early uptake of e-fuels
3. Pooling and banking incentivizes over-compliance
4. E-fuel sub-quota incentivizes e-fuels
Once you break down these four pillars, the business case for e-fuels is clear. This is how it works.

Firstly, “doing nothing” is not an option: As illustrated below, by 2030, fuel costs for a ship using fuel oil in Europe will increase 57% due to FuelEU and EU ETS.
The percentage greenhouse gas reduction of a fuel matters - there are significant differences between “green” fuels when it comes to carbon emission reductions.

E-methanol greenhouse gas reduction also differs project-to-project. -90% emission reduction is for an ETFuels e-fuels project.

As targets increase, significantly more alternative / green fuel is required… particularly for those fuels which don't achieve significant decarbonisation.

By 2035, a fleet would need to be converted to >90% LNG to be compliant, and 5 years later those same ships that were just bought would pay penalties. 
It is worth taking into account that when you change fuel, you often need new vessels too… and for fuels where a large switch is needed, CAPEX implications can be significant.

ETFuels evaluated the business case for different fuels by comparing the total cost of ownership of running different fuel strategies over a 15 year period. Our conclusion was clear - e-methanol is a compelling economic choice for shipowners, starting from 2030.

Contact us to learn more about what this might mean for your portfolio.

The full business case for e-fuels can be found here.

Aviation

Binding UK regulation creates a compelling business case for Power-to-Liquid SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), with binding PtL SAF quotas of 0.2% in 2028 and 0.6% in 2030.
The UK PtL SAF mandate starts in 2028 with a binding £0.145/MJ (c. £6,250/metric ton) buy-out price.
Binding European regulation is also in place under ReFuelEU Aviation. Non-compliance penalties under ReFuelEU’s PtL SAF mandate starting in 2030 are even more punitive at an estimated €13,890/tonne.
Introducing our off-grid model

Listen to Anthony Wang, our CTO, describe the rationale and thinking behind ETFuels. In this podcast through Volts Anthony cuts through the complexity and delivers clear conclusions as to why we do what we do.

Listen to podcast